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Welcome to Talking New Energy, a podcast from LCP Delta - the new energy experts. In the podcast, we'll be exploring how the energy transition is unfolding across Europe through conversations with guests from the leading edge of the transition.
Hello and welcome to the episode. Gas networks are right in the middle of the energy transition. Now, for decades, their role has been to distribute natural gas to millions of homes and buildings and industries across Europe and around the world. But what role will they play in the energy transition as we move away from natural gas to meet our decarbonisation goals? To explore this question, I'm joined by two guests. Angela Needle, Director of Strategy at Cadent Gas, who are one of the four major gas distribution companies in the UK serving 11 million homes and businesses. Hello, Angie. And Brendan Murphy, Head of Hydrogen at LCP Delta. Hello, Brendan.
Angie, you're also Vice President of Hydrogen UK, so keen to also hear from you how you see the development of the clean hydrogen sector in the UK as well. Now, let's start digging into gas networks and there's some very strong opinions and views about the role of gas networks in the future. And you're going to lay out the opinions, and I hope you don't mind me laying out either end of the spectrum. So, at one end, you've got a view that everything will be electrified. We'll build a much bigger electricity system and distribution network, and we won't need gas distribution at the other end of the spectrum. Then clean hydrogen will come along and be a solution for homes and buildings, and gas networks will be transporting that clean hydrogen to all of the homes and buildings and industries they currently serve. So, Angie, with that spectrum laid out, your job must be fascinating at the moment.
Yeah, hello. It's very fascinating. And the place where I tend to start when we talk about the gas networks is talk about what it does today so that you can understand how moving to net zero is essential in really thinking about the role of gas and whether that be natural gas or hydrogen or with the green gases like biomethane. And so, today's gas network delivers natural gas for power generation in the UK. So, about half of the electricity is made from natural gas, so it steps in when it's not windy. So, it provides that intermittency support, which is very important from a resilience point of view. It heats 23 million homes and half a million businesses. It powers industry, and there's lots of industrial processes in the UK that need a flame, for want of a better word, to work properly. I think the other thing to understand is the gas network in the UK is probably the most extensive in the world, per head and safest and all the other great things that we invested chose to invest in gas in the UK, which means that we've got this great asset that we really need to think about when you're moving to net zero, how do you make sure you recycle as much of this existing asset as possible without adding cost, if you like, to the energy system? And what we do know is the gas network is a really good way of transporting energy around our system. So about three times more gas is transported in the gas networks than the electricity today, and about five times that in the middle of winter. So, it provides a really important service. And so, when we think about net zero, you've got to look at each bit of its use and how you shift away from natural gas and the role of the gas networks. When you start thinking about hydrogen.
Yeah, that five times in the middle of winter. I think that's a fascinating metric that even on a cold winter stay, when we've got our peak electrical demand, the demand that the gas network is serving is five times bigger than electrical demand.
Yeah. And that's just because gas can be stored. It's a molecule, it provides heat, and the gas networks are designed to survive a one in 20 winter. And he's really the resilient backbone of the country, which is why, when we're thinking about net zero, it's so important to think about resilience and energy storage together with electricity, rather than being separate things.
Now, the policy debate can be quite it can exist along the whole of that spectrum, or that spectrum is discussed in policy circles around whether we're all electric or hydrogen or what mix of the two. And the assets that Cadent and other gas distribution network companies manage are very long-term assets. As you said, they've been built up over many, many years. So, in terms of your investments, what's it like at the moment, trying to make investments with high levels of uncertainty about the network in the future?
Yeah, it's a really good question because our investors quite rightly, want to know how much of our network is going to be there in 2050 and what are the returns going to be like. But what we do know is that we're going to be using less natural gas on the road to net zero. Quite rightly. And we also know that customers want choice in how they heat their homes. And we're dealing with this huge amount of uncertainty because the policies in the UK that decide on heating in particular, which is a big proportion of the energy that goes through the distribution network, is to heat homes. The decisions around all of that are still fairly up in the air, and that is because there's a focus on electrification of new builds, which is quite rightly, and there's a focus on getting heat pumps rolling out. But if we're really honest, that's happening very slowly in the UK. It's a bit of an outlier, maybe into other countries. And what we have discovered is people want to choose. They want to choose a heating system and then they want to choose the type of type of heating system that they have, whether it's a Backseat or a Worcester Bosch or an Ideal or a Valent or a heat pump or so they're really bothered about making their own decisions about their homes, which means that we're having to plan for where are we going to have the gas network? So where is it certain in any eventuality that you are going to need gas infrastructure? And the answer to that is industrial clusters, storage, connecting up big hydrogen clusters for resilience and market design. And then where are the locations where you can't electrify easily the businesses, industry and buildings so that you can start to build this picture? And then you overlay customer choice and you have to chuck it all up in the air and start again. Being able to understand all that and the difference between local, regional, and national resilience planning is tricky. What I would say is that we're looking forward to the future system operator in the UK, which is the sort of new body that government are developing that helps think about the planning of these important bits of infrastructure on a no regret basis.
So, I think you raised some really interesting points there, Angie. I think quite often in this discussion or in this debate, as you alluded to John, it's very polarised. And I think quite often in those discussions or in those arguments, a lot of issues or problems or challenges are assumed away in the interest of efficiency or whichever position that party is taking what you've just been through. And with all the role that gas distribution has and how important it has been for us over the decades, it's not just from an energy point of view, but it also plays a really important social role. You can't just sort of remove that from the system for the sake of efficiency and replace it with total electrification, which in itself brings enormous challenges of grid reinforcement. And also, the point you made about resilience, it's never a good idea. And I think the last couple of years, or at least the last year for sure, is showing that resilience is still really important. Energy security and energy resilience are quite rightly now more of a priority than they probably should have been for the last sort of 10-20 years. And placing all of our eggs into the electrification basket is probably a little bit silly in the long run.
And what I think, Brendan, is that when you speak in the sort of sensible government circles and you speak to the Committee on Climate Change or nobody's really in the place where you electrify everything, I think the general rule of thumb that I hear is about 30% of the net zero energy system is going to be hydrogen or an alternative gas. For one of the better words because there is biomethane and other gases available, but broadly hydrogen. And that is fundamentally part of managing flexibility of electricity and making sure there's enough energy for the peak of winter. So it may be that hydrogen is going to be used in some buildings that can't electrify to top up hybrid heat pump systems to power industry and businesses. But I think, assuming that you don't need it, full stop, I'm hoping that is slowly going away, actually now. But I do hear you, I do hear about it frequently. Unfortunately, it's still the case.
In a way, the more you electrify, the more you need to manage the peaks and the troughs and the bigger the role for hydrogen in managing those peaks and troughs. So, you've got the national level and then the other level is a very local level. You talked about, Angie, where you might have industrial clusters, you might have homes that are really, for whatever reason, difficult to fully electrify and therefore you have the gas network. But I'm interested to hear your thoughts, Angie, on how the challenges to repurpose a gas network to run on maybe blends initially, but ultimately 100% or much higher proportions of hydrogen or biomethane or lower zero carbon gases. Some of our listening, I think, will be really interested to understand how okay, get it. We've got pipes, we can just put different gases through. It practically what's that like to try and prepare for and get ready for.
Yeah, it's a great question. So, unfortunately, we can't just turn on the hydrogen tap from north to 100% and everything stays the same in people's homes and buildings. I would love that. By the way, I talked to boiler manufacturers out can you make me an eat everything boiler, please? And whatever blend of gas you've got, it's good. We can't invent one of those just yet unfortunately. So, we've got a situation where we know, we've done lots of tests and trials on gas network that you can put a 20% blend into existing gas networks at the distribution level. Tests are still going on at transmission level to put a blend of hydrogen in. Now, blends are useful to a point because they help hydrogen production to get going. It gives them somewhere to put the hydrogen should they have issues balancing supply and demand and things like that. But it's not an end goal and it's not going to get too large decarbonisation.
20% blend is actually less a smaller percentage for actual carbon reductions, isn't it?
6% carbon reduction. So, whilst 6% is not to be sniffed at. Right? Because if you had 6% carbon reductions plus an energy efficiency programme and insulation, you're talking 20% net. Zero is about incremental improvements and so they're all valuable. Yeah, yeah, I agree with that. But 100% is the is the goal, really, because you can't have a gas network with natural gas in it forever more. And so, what we are doing is running a series of projects that explore both the technical and safety aspects of hydrogen, 100% hydrogen conversion, and the practicalities of actually doing it. So, on the technical side of things, there's a project called H21, which is led by Northern Gas Network, and they've looked at everything from 100% hydrogen in the existing pipes, all the components that hydrogen interfaces with, pressure management, all those kinds of things. And the good news is that existing network, that's largely plastic now, and there's a programme to replace most of the mains at the moment, which has been running for quite a long time, it's a perfect compatible material for hydrogen conversion. So, from a network's point of view, we're pretty confident that 100% hydrogen will work in the existing assets in the ground, which is great. We want to recycle as much of the pipes as we can. We don't have to build too much new.
And then the other bit is, how do you actually convert? What experience do consumers have? What kind of changes do you need to do in the home? Do you need different metering, actually? How would you go about a conversion process that is a big old change? What we do know is that we've done it before, because tangled gas conversion in the UK, in the you do need a street-by-street conversion. And this is what I love about hydrogen conversion. Because if you can imagine decarbonisation zones and you go, okay, well, this week we're going to do your street. And we told you a year in advance what was going to happen. And we gave you the choice at that time as to whether you wanted to stay on gas and have hydrogen or switch to an electric alternative like a heat pump. You can go systematically through the building stock in this country and have decarbonisation roll out if you like. And that is why I'm a massive advocate of gas and electricity working together to make sure you've got a plan of coordination of how you get there. Because I fear if you leave it down to individual consumers making their individual choices at the time, that their boiler breaks, that's not going to get us to net zero.
No. And it's fascinating looking at other countries, I think if you look at talking to people in Stockholm, for example, they might own their flat, but they might be told, actually, you've got to move out for a few days because we're putting in a heat network connection. Now, that's a bit drastic, but in the Netherlands, a lot of the networks, electricity, and gas networks, are owned by the same company, so they're going area by area, really bottom up, community-based approach. Which networks are we going to build in this area or which networks are we going to keep? What will we build out? Heat, electricity, hydrogen? So, it really does engage people at very much a community level and it's quite different from the market-based approach that we've been used to with the energy system in the UK and other countries.
And I'm quite intrigued by this because I've got a feeling that that kind of approach might not work in the UK. And I'm interested to understand why is it that we are different if you like? Because the sort of bottom-up approach in Europe and getting communities together to make those things happen seems to work for a whole range of reasons. Cultural ones, society ones, different ownership of the infrastructure. There might be all kinds of reasons, but I think the way the UK is fragmented as well from an ownership of different networks point of view, makes that much harder. I don't know the answer to that question, Brendan.
I have a view, yeah. Well, in my previous life, I worked on two very large flagship programmes for the UK government to launch their heat networks policies, to try and build out heat networks in large urban areas. And right at the very start of those projects, we identified that cultural difference is probably I mean, there's always the sort of the planning laws and regulations and everything else, but they can be overcome quite easily. It's the behavioural and cultural and societal differences that we're seen as the biggest challenges to overcome. And I think that that's reflected across all parts of society as you sort of alluded to in in the way that we have open markets for the supply of energy. You can pick and choose your supplier as often as you like. That doesn't really exist in the same way in a lot of continental Europe. And, yeah, it's a really interesting one. I think the point you're making, Ange, about choice, I think is really important because to build a successful policy programme, a net zero pathway, it needs to reflect the society in which it's being applied. So, I think you have to allow that choice. You can't dictate from on high that this is the way that things shall be done. This doesn't work that way.
Well, in this country, I would contrast that with so I agree with you, Brendan, but then when I think back to the COVID and I'm reading a book at the moment about how the UK coped with the COVID pandemic, and a lot of the scientific advice was, well, we can't have a lockdown because people in the UK won't tolerate a lockdown. But actually, if you lead people and you explain why, then I think what COVID showed in the UK and other countries is people actually will come together around some common purpose. Now whether response to climate change, reducing carbon emissions and changes to energy networks can ever have such an emotive feel as COVID or not, I don't know, but I think it is a big unknown in terms of how much can we do at the local bottom-up level.
Don't you think that comes back to how much we talk about it? So, there's very low awareness of your heating system's impact on net zero. We've done our own research on consumer awareness, if you like, for technologies. One of our recommendations to government have always been that you really need to start talking about the importance of this to give people enough time and space to get used to the idea that they're going to have to do something different and we might have to do it in a coordinated way. And I do think there's a big gap here and one of the things we've done as a gas sector, along with the boiler manufacturers and a few others, is create a programme called Hello Hydrogen and it is simply an education programme about the potential role of hydrogen in your homes in the future. And it's really just starting as early as you can, even when we're still thinking about it, to start to get the messages out there almost in the same way that electric vehicle started, like, people now know that at some point in the future you are going to have to have a different car.
Now, the good thing is that your electric cars are nicer and easier in some instances and there's something attractive about them and we've got to do the same thing with heating. There's got to be a value proposition that is attractive to consumers, and I think that's also a bit of a stumbling block, because it doesn't always feel that way with some of the changes that we're imposing folks.
And I suppose that's an interesting you mentioned earlier that it's really important for gas and electricity to work alongside each other and not to fight each other. And I suppose in that respect, electricity and power is slightly ahead of I don't want to use that word the cool trend, if you like, because it's got all of the smart device, it's got all the clever stuff. It's got all the apps and smart fridges and TVs and Gas doesn't really have that.
Even when it comes down to the heating system. I was going to say, Angie, that I think heat pumps are now probably a topic of dinner time conversation in some households, whereas they weren't years ago because of the energy crisis. I don't know if hydrogen ready boilers would be a topic of conversation, but I guess that's your point that have that common, to have the education amongst people as to what is possible in the future.
Yeah, people aren't that bothered about their heating systems in the UK. I do think some people in your report are very proud of the heating system that they have in their home, but in the UK, it's what it does. It keeps me warm; I get hot water and if it doesn't keep me warm and I don't get hot water at a price that I can afford, then that's when it becomes a problem. I don't think there's much thought to exactly how it does that or whether it does it in a different way or not. I don't think we're much less interested in it.
Certainly, different from Germany and 20 years ago when micro combined heat and power was going to change the world in Germany. Some of the marketing of that, and this was really amongst innovators and very early adopters, was people would have a microCHP party to show off their new heating appliance to their neighbours.
We should do that hydrogen party.
I want to move the conversation onto another point, which is around the availability of hydrogen. So, I think what we've talked about is getting the gas network. The gas network can be repurposed. There's choices and decisions and strategic thinking about where you would repurpose it, but in terms of how much hydrogen would be available, because some of the people that push towards electrification might say, okay, we're going to have very small amounts of hydrogen and we need to be super careful about where we use them. And then others will say, well, at some point, when the marginal cost of renewables and the capital cost comes down and we can build floating offshore wind wherever we want, we could have huge amounts of hydrogen. So, I guess, Angie, both in your Cadent and Hydrogen UK role, and Brendan, in your hydrogen expertise role, how do you think about that? Will we have enough hydrogen at scale to be pushing large amounts through the gas network?
I find it's one of those chicken and egg questions. If you think there's not going to be enough, then there won't be enough, because you won't set big enough targets to have enough. And then obviously there's different colours and types of making hydrogen. I think they all have potential so long as they are low carbon. So green, blue, pink, solar, whatever there is. And obviously the more you build renewables, the more curtailment there needs to be. Which means you could either sell the surplus electricity, but if Europe's also got surplus, then you need to do something with that and you can put it in batteries, but you can make hydrogen too. And so, when we look at the analysis, it kind of depends what your rules are. So, you can definitely have enough hydrogen in the UK if you import, if you relied on blue hydrogen as well as green for a while. And we have good infrastructure offshore to have a bigger proportion of blue hydrogen than some other countries. So, it's whether that's palatable or not, and blue is going to be cheaper than green. So, I do think there is value in talking about whether there will be enough, but my main worry, by the way, is the government isn't setting big enough hydrogen production targets and so in itself is limiting the amount of hydrogen production.
And in the first instance, the 2030 policy in the UK is ten gigawatts. And that's focused around industrial decarbonisation and no hydrogen for any other use, really. And that isn't enough. And so, there's a bit of both going on, like you've got to set a big enough target to attract the investment, to scale production, to bring the cost down so that you can do you see what I mean? It's a bit of a circular argument.
I think that's a really good point. We're just about to wrap up a really important project, looking at the hydrogen to power business, modelling out volumes, availability, price, et cetera. And the single greatest concern or risk for project developers in that space is fuel availability. And I think there's different types of fuel availability that's fuel available at a national level. So, whether we produce enough nationally, which I think is what you're talking about and then there's also fuel available in the moment that you need it to burn to produce power because you're being called onto the grid at that moment to cover a shortfall, which is a different type of availability, but more urgent almost. And I think some of the really big the difference with hydrogen, the really big challenges for hydrogen, which is different to natural gas, is that I suppose it has so many different applications, and therefore you're operating in a marketplace competing with other sectors for the same fuel. And they have different demand profiles, different prices, different requirements and risks attached to those businesses. And I think I agree with you, I think rather have too much of it than not enough.
Otherwise, you start to get into the realms of doing potentially silly things like ring, fencing blocks of it for purposes and getting into the realms of controlled economies and planned economies, when really, we should be aiming for more sooner. And, yes, things will come in from other countries and the price will be different, but then the market will settle, and we'll get to a place where we sort of know what the global hydrogen prices will give or take, and there's a better flow of the fuel. And I suppose if you think about this, you step back a little bit. The natural gas market is over 100 years old. It's had lots of time to solve these problems and set prices and create arrangements and transport infrastructure. We've got 27 years to fix the net zero problem and we're still talking about some of the fundamental building blocks of a hydrogen economy. We just don't have time to try be fiddly. The ambition needs to be there.
On that time point. Angie, how well do you think the UK government is doing, or the UK is doing in terms of getting that momentum and speed you talked about? The target might not be ambitious enough in 2030. Is there that sense of urgency? Is the UK doing enough? If not, what should it be doing?
Yeah, I mean, today the CCC (Climate Change Committee) put out their report on the Government's progress towards net zero ambition and it was pretty brutal in their evaluation. Now, I work with civil servants on a day-to-day basis. I mean, the fact is, it's a colossal change of an energy system that we are trying to implement in a short space of time. And the policies and the thinking that you need to put in place, it's really complicated. And, yes, it's fragmented as well. And I would just like government to think about the absolute no regrets things that they should be really pushing quite hard on. And don't forget, in the UK, there's potential new government, there's energy bills, there's affordability challenges outfall out of COVID there's all kinds of things that are putting pressure on the public purse, which means that we're having to think really carefully about how you, I think the energy trilemma has got more.
It’s got more complicated, yes.
Year or two. And so, I just think there's big things that we know we need, regardless. We need pipes, we need storage, we need hydrogen production, we need as much renewables as we can get our hands on. Let's just get cracking with those things. They're an absolute given. Let's have a good energy efficiency and consumer education programme, so there's big things that we need to push on.
Well, let's use that as a segway to bring out the talking new energy crystal ball. And this week, I'd like to set the dial to 2030. With that, dates come up a couple of times, seven years away. And Angie and Brendan, I'd like you to imagine you're looking back from 2030. Can you give us a imagine you're giving a pen portrait or an elevator pitch for the UK hydrogen sector in 2030. How would you describe it? And you might want to weave gas networks into there in some way or not. Up to you. But, Angie, do you want to go first and then you, Brendan?
Yeah. And I'm going to give you an optimistic 2030.
Good. I'm always a glass half full person.
Yeah. Because I think it's easy to think, well, cranky, this is a bit tricky, but in 2030, I expect that we will have the first two big blue hydrogen clusters up and running and we'll have really good spectrum of green hydrogen production demonstrating that it can be done. I think we'll have made really good progress on the first town pilot, which I don't want to be calling town pilot anymore for hydrogen, I want it to be a decarbonisation zone, working closely with electricity on how we, street-by-street, make homes, not only low carbon, but better for consumers as a whole. Can you imagine you retrofit as you go? And from a gas distribution point of view, I think we'll be well into thinking about what a conversion programme looks like. And there obviously could be decommissioning parts in that, too. So, I think we'll have a really good plan by 2030. I. Don't think we'll have done as much execution as we would have liked.
Okay. I like your optimism. I think that's a great vision to be starting. Brendan?
yeah, I think it's a fair enough reflection. I think also more globally, I think we'll see by that stage some cooperation across regions or countries in those hydrogen hotspots. Globally, I think you'll start to see some of the tensions, maybe tensions the wrong word, but some of the dynamics, market dynamics changing as the import export picture becomes a bit clearer. And I think we'll get a little bit closer towards a market-based price setting mechanism. And hopefully if everything goes to plan and we see what Andrew's described and we see some of that interconnectedness across Europe as well, maybe a little bit less, or at least the first steps towards less subsidiary and more commodity market prices, market forces, which is what we really need soon because we need lots of molecules flying around and we need at a good price.
So, the emergence of a bit of a global trade if that's not too strong. Brendan of some import from those hydrogen hotspot regions like Southern Africa or Chile or Australia.
Yeah, North Africa and Saudi Arabia and the Middle East to begin with. And then yes, Namibia. Ammonia coming in. Yeah, hopefully. Fingers crossed. I'll also go glass half full on this one.
Okay, well, there's a huge amount to do, but a huge amount that's already been done, I think, in terms of building knowledge and understanding in the hydrogen space. I don't like the either. Or electrification. Hydrogen discussions. I like that and discussions, and then it's just a case of exactly where the slide lands. In terms of the combination of the two. We definitely need all the clean electricity and as much electrification as we can get, but we need hydrogen for the balancing of the system and the parts of the system that are hard to decarbonize with electricity. So, if we're going to meet our carbon goals, we need to be pushing forward on every front we can. Angie, thanks so much for your time and sharing your expertise and perspectives.
Thanks for having me.
Brendan thanks again.
Pleasure always. Thanks very much.
And thanks to everyone for listening. We hope you enjoyed the episode. It gave you some new perspectives and things to think about. Remember, please rate us on the platform that you listen to if you like the podcast, and you can send us ideas for future episodes or speakers at email@example.com. Thanks very much and goodbye.
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