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Revenue Forecasting, Transaction Support and Due Diligence

Decarbonisation, affordability and security of supply challenges have led governments around Europe to introduce energy subsidies and capacity auctions to stimulate investment. 

This has fundamentally transformed the dynamics of investments; the way energy market participants are remunerated and the value of energy assets. There is a growing need to understand the revenues and costs associated with ancillary services such as balancing costs that are material for investment decisions, and how these can be stacked alongside wholesale revenue. 

Additionally, as renewable penetration increases, understanding the range of outcomes within scenarios is crucial to understanding ‘tail’ events, where many flexible assets derive significant value. 

High-voltage power lines. Electricity distribution station. high voltage electric transmission tower. Distribution electric substation with power lines and transformers
Solar panels with wind turbines and electricity pylon at sunset

We combine bottom-up unit-level modelling with market and policy insights to quantify the value and risk associated with any generation asset. 

We support acquisition, new build, or internal valuations across the full range of technologies in GB and Ireland: from CCGT and traditional renewables through to storage and hydrogen-based technologies. 

Our modelling is trusted by key industry participants, including the UK Government and National Grid, and our credibility extends to supporting with bankable business cases and due diligence. 

Our in-depth modelling assesses the stack of revenues available to all technology classes: 

  • Wholesale
  • Balancing
  • Ancillary services
  • Capacity market
  • Renewable support
  • Embedded benefits
  • Locational benefits
We can assess projects under different market scenarios, including key uncertainties such as decarbonisation and decentralisation of the generation mix, policy changes, commodity prices, and increased market penetration leading to the cannibalisation of revenues.  
Chris Matson, Partner

Creating a strong, bankable investment case requires a full appreciation of the revenue stack and its sensitivity across scenarios, locations and policy changes. Using our grounded, fundamentals-first models, we help our clients understand the full range of outcomes and help them invest with confidence.”

How we can help

Click to read our Revenue Forecasting, Transaction Support and Due Diligence case studies

How we helped a client assess the value of adding battery storage to an existing generation portfolio.
This case study highlights the importance of accurate valuation for generation assets, showcasing how robust modelling techniques can provide insights into asset value and inform investment decisions. It emphasises the role of valuation models in optimising asset portfolios and maximising returns in the ever-evolving energy market.

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