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Power Market Forecasting and Scenario Analysis

Electricity markets around the world are fundamentally transforming. The push to decarbonise the network has led to the introduction of low-carbon support mechanisms, capacity markets, and an increase in the range and importance of ancillary service markets.

Conventional generation sources are increasingly complemented by intermittent renewables, demand side response and storage technologies. 

As a result, electricity market modelling must adapt accordingly. LCP Delta’s energy market forecasting has been continually enhanced to reflect these developments.

We provide detailed forecasts of the GB and Irish power markets, using our EnVision modelling framework, trusted by the UK Government and National Grid. This can provide both short-term and long-term forecasts of all key system metrics, from system wide to individual assets. 

High-voltage power lines. Electricity distribution station. high voltage electric transmission tower. Distribution electric substation with power lines and transformers
Solar panels with wind turbines and electricity pylon at sunset

We can provide forecasts for:

  • Wholesale market prices – baseload, off-peak, peak, wind-captured
  • Balancing mechanism forecasts – bid and offer prices, volumes and revenues for individual assets
  • Ancillary services markets
  • Capacity market auction outcomes
  • CfD auction outcomes
  • Network and balancing system charges –TNUoS, DUoS, BSUoS
  • Generation and capacity mix
  • Carbon intensity
  • System and consumer costs
  • Individual asset operations and revenues

Our modelling is continually developed and calibrated to incorporate the latest market developments. We typically provide our forecasts under a set of market scenarios, to help understand the range of likely outcomes. We can also tailor the forecast to allow for any in-house views.

Chris Matson, Partner

As power markets decarbonise they have become increasingly complex to model. New technologies, more intermittency, increasing flexibility, more markets and smarter demand has meant that modelling realistic outturns requires a more sophisticated approach. We’re proud to be at the forefront of power market forecasting and trusted by the UK Government to provide their power market models.”

How we can help

Click to read our Power Market Forecasting and Scenario Analysis case studies

How LCP Delta advisers helped DECC to identify technologies which can provide greatest benefits to the wide energy system.
This case study showcases the evaluation of Irish generation assets, highlighting the role of robust modelling techniques in assessing asset value, informing investment decisions, and optimising asset portfolios. It emphasises the importance of accurate valuation in maximising returns and achieving efficient asset management in the Irish energy market.
Explore the assessment of interconnection's value to the Great Britain (GB) power system, focusing on its potential benefits for renewable energy integration, enhanced system flexibility, and improved market efficiency. This case study discusses how interconnection can contribute to decarbonisation efforts, provide backup capacity during peak demand, and facilitate cross-border electricity trading for economic advantages.

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