Power Market Forecasting and Scenario Analysis
Electricity markets around the world are fundamentally transforming. The push to decarbonise the network has led to the introduction of low-carbon support mechanisms, capacity markets, and an increase in the range and importance of ancillary service markets.
Conventional generation sources are increasingly complemented by intermittent renewables, demand side response and storage technologies.
As a result, electricity market modelling must adapt accordingly. LCP Delta’s energy market forecasting has been continually enhanced to reflect these developments.
We provide detailed forecasts of the GB and Irish power markets, using our EnVision modelling framework, trusted by the UK Government and National Grid. This can provide both short-term and long-term forecasts of all key system metrics, from system wide to individual assets.
We can provide forecasts for:
- Wholesale market prices – baseload, off-peak, peak, wind-captured
- Balancing mechanism forecasts – bid and offer prices, volumes and revenues for individual assets
- Ancillary services markets
- Capacity market auction outcomes
- CfD auction outcomes
- Network and balancing system charges –TNUoS, DUoS, BSUoS
- Generation and capacity mix
- Carbon intensity
- System and consumer costs
- Individual asset operations and revenues
Our modelling is continually developed and calibrated to incorporate the latest market developments. We typically provide our forecasts under a set of market scenarios, to help understand the range of likely outcomes. We can also tailor the forecast to allow for any in-house views.
As power markets decarbonise they have become increasingly complex to model. New technologies, more intermittency, increasing flexibility, more markets and smarter demand has meant that modelling realistic outturns requires a more sophisticated approach. We’re proud to be at the forefront of power market forecasting and trusted by the UK Government to provide their power market models.”
How we can help
Click to read our Power Market Forecasting and Scenario Analysis case studies
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