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Power Market Forecasting and Scenario Analysis case study

Irish generation asset evaluation

The background

LCP Delta have provided modelling and analysis to support clients in evaluating a range of generation assets in Ireland under the new I-SEM market arrangements.

Our solution

We have provided detailed assessments of the stack of revenues available under the new arrangements, including the wholesale market, balancing market, ancillary service contracts and the capacity mechanism. Our modelling captures:

  • The impacts on price volatility within the wholesale market due to changes in the market, particularly the penetration of intermittent generation. Stochastic simulations of wind and demand were used to capture the full range of wind and demand profiles that drive these prices
  • The contribution of interconnector flows with GB. We model GB in parallel in full detail, capturing the correlations in intermittent generation and demand between the two markets
  • The hour-to-hour actions and prices in the balancing mechanism. Based on the modelling of forecasting uncertainties in wind and demand, net imbalance volumes are calculated and generation is dispatched to balance the system subject to their dynamics
  • Revenues from DS3 ancillary service contracts for which flexible assets can capture, taking into account current and forecast tariffs, plant capabilities, contracts available and calculating hourly revenues based on plants; generation profiles and the application of temporal and locational scalars
  • The Capacity Remuneration Mechanism (CRM), for which the annual capacity auctions are simulated in full detail, with plant bids calculated consistently with revenues captured in other markets
  • Detailed modelling of the operational constraints within Ireland. Our modelling captured the need for flexible plant to respond to these constraints, for example to ensure the System Non-Synchronous Penetration (SNSP) limits are met and to alleviate locational constraints in the Northern Ireland and Dublin areas

The results

We have provided views of the potential revenues for assets under different scenarios, together with high level system wide results such as wholesale price, demand and generation mix.

Get in touch

If you would like to know more about our services and how we can help you we’d love to hear from you.

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